Sunday spotlight: The environmental chain reaction impacting northern Colorado: snowpack, drought, and wildfires

Editor’s note: This news package originated from an experimental journalism course titled “AI in Reporting” that was taught this spring. In the interest of transparency, all stories originating from this class will include in-depth statements about how AI was used in the reporting.

By CELIA KHALAF
The Ramspondents

This year, many northern Colorado residents have wondered when snow would fall on the foothills. Communities have been preparing  for winter and anticipating snowfall, yet only about 10 inches of snow have fallen in the area. In contrast, the mountains have received approximately 20 inches of snow. However, these levels are still significantly lower than scientists would prefer. This year, Colorado only reached  61% of its expected snowpack.

Meteorologist Paul Schlatter and senior service hydrologist Aldis Strautins, both from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said they are concerned about the effects of snowpack and wildfires. 

Snowpack is “...snow that we get in the mountains, and it becomes our reservoir for water essentially for the rest of the year out west...When I am looking at snowpack, I am looking at snow water equivalent, which is how much water is in the snow,” Strautins said.   

Snowfall averages in Colorado over the past five years help residents and scientists understand the importance of these low numbers. 

“National averages are always something to look at. Winters in the near past can predict how this year will look,” Strautins said. “So far in Colorado, we are seeing 55% below the normal average.” 

Low snowpack will impact how much water the reservoirs will contain. Less water affects agriculture and the residents of the Colorado foothills.

 “It is going to be a lot harder to get up to normal for snowpack,” Strautins said. “We might be able to get above the historical lows and not be the lowest year, but there is still that possibility, too.” 

Schlatter said that the wildfire risk this summer will be directly related to the historically low moisture levels and precipitation this winter. 

“Today is a perfect day,” Schlatter said. “You know, February 17th, when all those conditions come together, the drought, the high winds, the really dry air, and we have got fires starting in various parts of the Colorado Plains.” 

​Unless Colorado sees more precipitation and a strong green-up in May or June, the state faces an elevated wildfire risk heading into summer. Schlatter explained that healthy green grass is far less likely to ignite than the dry, dead brown grass left over from a snowless winter. If spring rains fail to arrive and new growth dries out early, the fire danger won't ease. 

“Strong winds are probably the number one thing by far, and the stronger the winds, the worse the fire can spread,” Schlatter said. “Relative humidity values are also extremely important, because under really dry air conditions, fire starts and fires spread become more severe and more rapid.” 

In addition to mountain snowpack, the Colorado River is a key source of water for six states, 30 Native American tribes, and 40 million people. The river’s water supply is threatened after low runoff from melting snow in the mountains leads to drought conditions. A low water supply has a negative impact on daily life, agriculture, and Colorado's economy, which is supported by recreational activities that depend on snowfall.      

Peter Globe, assistant climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center at CSU, further clarified the impact of snowpack on the environment. His research is largely focused on climate change and climate variability in Colorado and the Western United States.  

Globe said Colorado is a headwater state, meaning there are no major rivers that flow into Colorado from another state, and there are no connections to Great Lakes or large fresh bodies of water. The majority of Colorado's water comes from snowfall, which melts in late spring or early summer and replenishes lakes and reservoirs. 

Globe said the importance of water to Colorado in multiple sectors, including environmental, recreational, and agricultural uses. Many businesses rely on snow for skiing in the winter and rafting in the summer when snow melts into the rivers. Other states, such as California and Arizona, are also dependent on the water levels in the Colorado River. 

With low snowpack and high temperatures in the winter, there’s a high probability of hotter summer weather, restrictions on water crop usage, and wildfires.

The 2026 snowpack has been compared to the 2002 drought and low snowpack numbers. The major difference is 2026’s warmer spring. Heat can reduce runoff and accelerate snowmelt. In 2002, multiple droughts led to extremely low reservoir storage.

“...generally, with these types of weather patterns, current performance is no guarantee of future performance,” Globe said. 

Climate variability makes it extremely difficult to predict future snowpack levels. This unpredictability can also manifest in storms and severe weather.  

Celia Khalaf is a senior in the Journalism and Media Communication Department at CSU.

Fire conditions continue to threaten Colorado as we head into spring. These conditions — drought, wind, and low precipitation — create the perfect environment for ignition.​

These services will provide alerts in the event of wildfires

AI is a tool that can be utilized by journalists to aid them in stories they write. The use of generative AI does not replace human reporting, human sources, or using our own judgment. 

Artificial intelligence was used to generate charts used in this report. The reporter used publicly available environmental data to analyze and generate these visuals, which were then verified by the reporter against the original data. In addition, sources used in this story verified that the data output was correct.